Tuesday, June 26, 2012

27th June: Rupee report only for exporters n importer & NSE currency futures usd/inr report



Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

www.insigniaconsultants.in

 

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

 

 TIME 09:41 AM IST                          

 

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US DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE REPORT (ONLY FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS)

 

The lack of progress on Monsoon rainfall is a worry for the Indian economy. If monsoon rains are deficient then there will not be any interest rate cuts. Month end demand will prevent any major gains for the rupee. We just need to wait and watch as the government is not sleeping. Yesterday night I was watching some business news channel wherein they said that there will be a major overall in the UPA government ministerial portfolio. The diplomatic corporate fraternity in India is very openly said that the UPA government will loose miserably in the next general elections is the current state of economy continues for another year. Global sentiment towards in India and other emerging nations will soon change. Exporters should use a stop loss of 56.48 for their near term receivables while importers should use a stop loss of 57.70 for the near term payables.

 

Every market has a tendency to overshoot or undershoot. Rupee's weakness has overshot and it can continue for some more time. It's difficult to predict when rupee will start to gain against the US dollar but it can happen anytime.

 

 

DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

 

LTP

% CHG

3 mth %

OPEN INT.

50 DAY MA

100 DAY MA

200 DAY MA

UISD/INR

 

 

 

 

 

 

SPOT

57.0800

0.23

12.21

<NA>

54.6339

52.4356

51.5432

1 MTH

37.00

0

3.50

<NA>

34.76

36.47

33.22

2 MTH

70.00

0

2.19

<NA>

66.75

69.89

62.75

3 MTH

103.00

0

5.10

<NA>

96.68

99.68

88.79

6 MTH

180.75

0

4.93

<NA>

170.51

175.50

153.65

9 MTH

254.50

0

6.37

<NA>

235.34

241.62

207.05

12 MTH

326.00

0

9.03

<NA>

298.90

303.25

254.21

 

 

Technically speaking: Rupee needs to trade over 56.35 else it will fall to 55.80 and 55.48

 

NSE CURRENCY USD/INR JULY CMP 57.3775

Bullish over 57.1250 with 57.53 and 57.84 as price target

Bearish below 56.9600 with 56.65-56.0900 as price target

Neutral Zone: 56.9750-56.7900

BREAK POINT: - 57.26

·        Usd/inr needs to break 57.84 by Friday else it will fall to 56.09

·        There will be sellers only below 57.25

 

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

ALL PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

 

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

 

USD/INR: 0.07-1.012

EURO/INR: 0.20-0.30

GBP/INR: 0.20-0.30

JPY/INR: 0.15-0.20

 

 

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