Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Thursday, October 04, 2012
TIME: 07:25 am IST
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NSE CURRNCY FUTURES/MCX-SX CURRENCY FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT
(All prices are in Indian rupees below in this report)
Commentary
There is speculation that India can announce another set of reforms anytime. Foreign investors are heavily investing in India. Investors are now targeting the BSE Sensex to rise to 23000 to 25000 over the next one year from current 18869 levels. The UPA government is just selling its assets to curb its current account deficit. The net worth of government of India is on the decline. It is selling land, holdings in private sector companies and public sector companies. Selling your own assets to reduce deficit is a short term gain and long term pain for the Indian economy. The next general election is another twenty months away (if the UPA government completes it tenure). The problems will be faced by the political party in power after the next general elections. Rupee can gain to 48.00 and even 45.00 against the US dollar in the next twenty months if there is political stability.
The "gloom doom" India story which was there in mind of foreign investor in the last quarter has reversed to "all positive". Unless there are negative news from India or the US dollar gains significantly Indian rupee will continue to gain against the major currencies.
Trading strategy For the very large traders and high risk traders
USD/INR OCTOBER: Sell only if usd/inr trades below 52.2500
EURO/INR OCTOBER: Sell euro/inr if and only if trades below 67.60
GBP/INR OCTOBER: Sell gbp/inr if and only if trades below 84.9650
JPY/INR OCTOBER: Sell jpy/inr only if trades below 66.9575
TECHNICAL VIEW
US-DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 52.4600)
Bullish over 52.6200 with 52.8200-53.0500 as price target
Bearish below 52.2500 with 51.9600 and 51.3500 as price target
Neutral Zone: 52.2500-52.6200
BREAK POINT: - 52.6100
· Looks bearish and can fall to 52.25-51.76 as long as it trades below 52.7600
· There will be a technical break below 52.2500 to 51.00
EURO-INDIA RUPEE (EUR/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 67.6950)
Bullish over 68.0200 with 68.3650-68.8825 as price target
Bearish below 67.8400 with 66.9650-65.8150 as price target
Neutral Zone: 67.8400-68.0200
BREAK POINT: 67.8425
- Euro/Inr can fall to 66.9650 and 65.2900 in short term as long as trades below 68.0200
- There will be a technical break down below 67.8425 to 66.9650-65.8150
UK POUND -INDIA RUPEE (GBP/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 84.4450)
Bullish over 84.5700 with 85.2650 and 86.1525 as price target
Bearish below 83.8950 with 83.5274-82.8075 as price target
Neutral Zone: 83.8950-84.5700
BREAK POINT: 83.8950
· 83.8950 is the key long term support and cable can rise to 85.2650 as long as it trades below 85.2650
· Today there will be sellers only below 84.3650 to 83.8950-83.3650.
· A daily close below 83.8950 today will be a bearish for gbp/inr in long term.
JAPANESE YEEN -INDIA RUPEE (JPY/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 67.0250)
Bullish over 67.4525 with 67.4750 and 67.9650 as price target
Bearish below 66.9650 with 66.3875 and 66.0225 as price target
Neutral Zone: 66.9650-67.4725
BREAK POINT: - 66.9575
- There will be a long term technical break down below 66.9575 to 66.0225 and 62.0100.
- On the higher side only a break of 67.4675 will result in intra day bullish zone.
Happy profitable trading & Trade without emotions
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in
Disclosure: The directors and employess do not have any open positions. Our clients do trade on the above report.
"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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